This procedure is known as a vulnerability analysis or a stress test. If a potential future scenario might lead to a shortage in supply or nonattainment of water quality criteria, one has identified a potential failure in performance. By evaluating a range of strategies, one may identify strategies that perform well over the broadest range of futures. One may use historic, observed conditions for one set of simulations. If a reliable statistically downscaled dataset is not available for evaluating climate change, one may statistically modify the observed dataset to generate alternative climate conditions, such as warm, hot, dry, wet, and any combination of those or other factors.
Such perturbed climate time series data may be used to stress test a plan. Such a strategy allows one to quickly evaluate the potential influence of climate change on system performance. The most important step is to get started. You could recruit a scientific advisory panel to advise you on how to integrate some of these methods and through a range of plausible futures for your region.
You can also adopt these methods incrementally. One possible sequence for mainstreaming these into your organization is to just to first off embrace the idea of having multiple futures. The next step could be to employ qualitative methods to evaluate ranges of futures for which a system would perform better or worse.
A third step could be to quantify and rigorously think through how ranges of futures could affect your system using modeling and evaluation tools. We argue that the use of existing DMDU methods in practice should start with a better understanding of the institutional, organisational and individual contexts. We then suggest modifications to the applications of DMDU methods, i. Filename: 1-s2. Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice.
Abstract Deep uncertainties like environmental and socio-economic changes create challenges to decision making. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4. Download Published Version. Symplectic Publications.
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Her lips were dry and rough. He had a deep scar under his left eye. Keep him deep She is now under deep sedation.
Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) methods are recognised approaches to navigate deep uncertainties and support robust and adaptable decisions. We are a multi-disciplinary association of professionals dedicated to improving decision making under deep uncertainty. Deep uncertainty exists when parties. This open access book focuses on the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty.